US Visa Refusal Rates 2026: India 61%, Pakistan 71%, Nepal 81% – Full Data Analysis | TryOneRead
The data is clear. Getting a US student visa has become significantly harder for applicants from South Asia. In 2025, the global F-1 visa refusal rate hit a decade-high of 35 percent, up from 23 percent in 2015. But the regional disparities are staggering. While European applicants face only a 9 percent refusal rate, students from India, Pakistan, Nepal, and Bangladesh face rejection rates between 61 and 81 percent. TryOneRead has analyzed the latest State Department data to bring you this complete visualization.
📊 F-1 Student Visa Refusal Rates by Country (2025 Data)
The following chart shows the refusal rates for US student visas across Asia. The data comes from the US Department of State, analyzed by Shorelight and the Presidents' Alliance on Higher Education and Immigration [citation:1][citation:6].
📈 Year-by-Year Trend: How Refusal Rates Have Climbed
The increase has been steady and concerning. For Indian applicants, the refusal rate rose from 36 percent in 2023 to 61 percent in 2025 – a jump of 25 percentage points in just two years [citation:6].
Nepal saw the most dramatic increase, rising from 59% in 2024 to 81% in 2025 – a 22 percentage point jump in a single year [citation:1].
🌍 Regional Comparison: A Divided World
The disparity between regions is striking. A student from Europe is approved 91 percent of the time. A student from Africa is approved only 36 percent of the time. This geographic divide raises serious questions about equity in the US visa system [citation:7].
📋 Complete F-1 Visa Refusal Data Table (2025)
| Country | Refusal Rate | Change from 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Nepal | 81% | ↑ 22% |
| Afghanistan | 81% | ↑ Significant |
| Bangladesh | 73% | ↑ |
| Pakistan | 71% | ↑ |
| India | 61% | ↑ 25% since 2023 |
| Ghana | 81% | ↑ 9% |
| Nigeria | Travel ban in effect (cannot apply) | |
💼 B1/B2 Tourist Visa Rates
Student visas are not the only category facing increased scrutiny. According to US Department of State data, B1/B2 tourist visa refusal rates also vary significantly by country [citation:3].
| Country | B1/B2 Refusal Rate (FY2025) |
|---|---|
| India | 22.04% |
| Mexico | 21.36% |
| Colombia | 32.84% |
| Ecuador | 42.24% |
| Dominican Republic | 36.40% |
| Costa Rica | 16.14% (Lowest) |
⚠️ What Is Driving These Higher Refusal Rates?
Several factors are contributing to the surge in denials:
- Trump-era travel bans: A June 2025 presidential proclamation restricted F-1 visa issuance for nationals from 19 countries, more than half of them African [citation:1].
- Increased scrutiny of "Genuine Student" status: Consular officers are rigorously evaluating whether applicants intend to return home after their studies.
- Financial documentation requirements: Officers are demanding more robust proof of funds and repayment capacity.
- Regional profiling: High overstay rates from certain countries have led to increased scrutiny for all applicants from those regions.
📅 Overall Visa Approvals Dropped 11% in 2025
Between January and August 2025, the US approved 11 percent fewer visas across all categories compared to the same period in 2024. This represents a reduction of approximately 250,000 visas. Indian and Chinese nationals accounted for about 84,000 of that decline – the largest drop among all nationalities [citation:4][citation:8].
📢 Have You Been Affected?
Have you or someone you know experienced a US visa denial? Share your story at panjabprideshop@gmail.com.
Written by Alex Ven
Senior Immigration Data Analyst at TryOneRead
Alex has analyzed US immigration data for over a decade, tracking trends in visa approvals and denials across all categories.